This report focuses on Intel's Desktop PC processor business and includes volume, product, and clock speed estimates to 4Q04; pricing and ASP projections to 4Q03. This report covers the introduction of the Pentium 4 processor family to the desktop PC market and its migration through three IC processes. Chip set and platform technologies are included, along with MDR's projections of RAMBUS Direct RDRAM memory vs. DDR SDRAM platform positioning. The impact of AMD's processors on the desktop market is also explored.
 
 In the first half of 2002, Intel's Pentium 4 left AMD's Athlon XP in the dust. But AMD's Hammer processor could prove to be a tough competitor in 2003. This report covers Intel's plans to increase desktop processor speeds, reaching over 4GHz in 2004, and integrate the Hyper-Threading technology, as it struggles to maintain leadership over AMD and keep pace with Moore's Law. A number of challenges lie ahead for Intel and the whole PC industry. Understanding Intel's product directions and potential will help you navigate that future. Data, dating back as far as 1993, is supplied to provide a historical context to Intel's present and future plans.

Table of Contents

• Executive Summary
• Methodology
• Introduction
  • Intel's Processor Roadmap
  • Intel's Chip Sets and Memory
• Desktop Performance Processors
  • Overview
  • The Pentium II/III Family
    • Coppermine
    • Tualatin
  • The Pentium 4 Family
    • Willamette
      • Socket W and P7 Bus
    • Northwood
      • Socket N
    • NorthwoodX
    • Prescott (NorthwoodXS)
    • PrescottS
  • The 64-Bit Question
    • Hammer and x86-64
  • Technology Trends
    • Packaging
    • Power Dissipation
    • Die Proliferation
  • Processor Roadmap
    • Overview
    • Segmentation Model
    • Overview
    • Speed Grades
  • Frequency Roadmap
    • Willamette
    • Northwood
    • NorthwoodX
    • Prescott (NorthwoodXS)
    • PrescottS
  • Chip-Set Roadmaps
    • Overview
    • Intel Hub Architecture
    • New Interfaces
    • DRAM Choices
    • Integrated Graphics
  • Desktop Performance Chip-Set Features
    • Intel 850
    • Intel 845 (Brookdale)
    • Intel 845G (BrookdaleG)
    • Springdale
    • Springdale 2
    • Springdale 3
  • Intel Processor Pricing
    • Price Environment
    • Scheduling Price Moves
  • Desktop Price Projections
    • Pentium III
    • Pentium 4
    • AMD Athlon XP
    • Overall ASP
  • Shipments by Die
  • Shipments by Clock Speeds
    • PC Performance Trends
    • Performance Projections
  • Key Challenges for Intel
    • Demand for Performance
    • x86 Competition
    • Emerging Non-PC Platforms
    • Rising Manufacturing Costs
  • Conclusions

  List of Tables

• Table 1: A brief summary of current and future Intel processors
• Table 2: A brief summary of current and future Intel chip sets
• Table 3: Intel list prices for 0.13-micron Pentium III, introduction to 3Q02 (EOL)
• Table 4: Intel list prices for 0.18-micron Pentium 4 (Willamette), introduction to 4Q02
• Table 5: Intel list prices by speed grade for Pentium 4 and Pentium 5, introduction to 4Q03
• Table 6: AMD list prices for Athlon XP, introduction to 3Q02
• Table 7: A brief summary of current and future AMD processors

List of Figures

• Figure 1: Intel processor slot and socket roadmap, 2001–2004
• Figure 2: Maximum power dissipation for several generations of Intel processors
• Figure 3: Intel's segmentation model has six main segments. The high-end workstation and server segments are often lumped together under the Xeon brand
• Figure 4: Intel desktop performance PC processor roadmap, 2001–2004
• Figure 5: Intel desktop PC chip-set roadmap, 2001–2004
• Figure 6: Intel price ranges for desktop processors, 1Q00–4Q03
• Figure 7: Average selling price for performance desktop segment, 1Q95–4Q03
• Figure 8: Intel performance desktop processor unit shipments by die, 1Q95–4Q04. Excludes Celeron
• Figure 9: Desktop Pentium III shipments by clock speeds, introduction to 4Q02
• Figure 10: Desktop Pentium 4 shipments by clock speeds, introduction to 4Q04
• Figure 11: Desktop Prescott (Pentium 5) shipments by clock speeds, introduction to 4Q04