Mintel’s International Tourism Forecasts details projected international tourism flows and expenditure up to the year 2020. It should be noted that, like the statistics compiled by the UNWTO (United Nations World Tourism Organisation), only the movements and spending of tourists who cross international borders have been taken into account. Data relating to domestic tourism, which constitutes the major part of tourism activity worldwide, have therefore been excluded from this report.

Restricting the analysis and forecasting of tourism to cross-border movements distorts the comparison among different geographical regions around the world. The principal result of this is that the level of tourism activity in Europe appears far more important relative to the rest of the world than it is in reality. This is due to the continent being split up into a number of small countries in close proximity to one another, which means that international border crossings are more frequent than in other parts of the world. Indeed, a large proportion of the European population lives within less than 200km of an international border. This situation can be compared to that of an American, a Brazilian, or a Chinese who might have to travel thousands of kilometres to reach a foreign country.



Table of contents:


Introduction
Outlook for growth
One-off events?
Environmental taxes and restrictions
Environmental concerns
Airport capacity constraints
Four scenarios for the growth of air travel
Growth in international air travel
The fastest-growing air-travel destinations
Figure 2: Top 20 countries with over 2 million annual passengers, by average annual growth rate, 2005-09
Tourism performance by region 1995-2005
Outbound travel
Figure 3: Performance by region 1990-2005: outbound trips, 1990-2005
Inbound arrivals
Figure 4: Performance by region and sub-region: inbound arrivals, 1990-2005
Inbound receipts
Figure 5: The trend in international tourism receipts, 1990-2005
Figure 6: Performance by region and sub-region, 1990-2005: inbound receipts
Definitions
Tourist
Outbound tourism expenditure
Data sources and methodology
Historical time series
The importance of exchange rates
Destination competition
Report structure
Figure 7: The top 30 outbound and top 32 inbound countries selected

Summary of Forecasts
Outbound trips by region of origin, 1990-2020
The Middle East and Asia-Pacific are leaders
Americas due for a comeback
Short-haul will grow faster than long-haul
Outbound trips by region of origin
Figure 8: Breakdown of outbound departures by region, 2005
Figure 9: Forecast breakdown of outbound departures by region, 2020
Figure 10: Past and forecast outbound trips by region of origin, 1990-2020
Inbound arrivals by destination
Figure 11: Breakdown of inbound arrivals by region, 2005
Figure 12: Forecast breakdown of inbound arrivals by region, 2020
Figure 13: Past and forecast arrivals by region of origin, 1990-2020
Incoming receipts
Figure 14: Breakdown of incoming receipts by region, 2005
Figure 15: Forecast breakdown of incoming receipts, 2020
Figure 16: Forecast incoming receipts by region, 2003-20
Top ten countries for outbound trips
Figure 17: Top ten countries for outbound departures in 2005 and 2020
Top ten countries for outbound expenditure
Figure 18: Top ten countries for outbound expenditure in 2005 and 2020
Top ten inbound countries for inbound arrivals
Figure 19: Top ten countries for inbound arrivals in 2005 and 2020
Top ten countries for incoming receipts
Figure 20: Top ten markets for incoming receipts in 2005 and 2020
The fastest-growing outbound markets and destinations
Figure 21: Forecast ten fastest-growing outbound countries for departures and expenditure, 2005-20
Figure 22: Forecast ten fastest-growing destinations for arrivals and receipts, 2005-20
Forecast trips and expenditure by the 30 main outbound countries
Figure 23: Forecast trips and expenditure by country of origin, 2005-20
Forecast arrivals and receipts in the 32 main destination countries
Figure 24: Forecast arrivals and receipts by 32 main destination countries, 2005-20

Outbound Forecasts by Country of Origin
Argentina
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 25: Total outbound trips and spend: Argentina
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 26: Top five destinations for Argentinian outbound trips, 2003-20
Austria
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 27: Total outbound trips and expenditure: Austria, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 28: Top five destinations for Austrian holiday trips, 2003-20
Australia
Population structure
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 29: Outbound trips from Australia and expenditure, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 30: Top five destinations for Australian outbound travel, 2002-20
Belgium
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 31: Outbound holiday trips and expenditure: Belgium, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 32: Top five destinations for Belgian holiday trips, 2003-20
Brazil
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 33: Outbound trips and expenditure: Brazil, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 34: Top six destinations for Brazilian outbound trips, 2003-20
Canada
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 35: Outbound trips and expenditure: Canada, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 36: Top five destinations for Canadian outbound travel, 2003-20
China
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 37: Outbound trips and expenditure: China, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 38: Top six destinations for Chinese outbound travel, 2003-20
Denmark
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 39: Outbound trips and expenditure: Denmark, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 40: Top five destinations for Danish outbound travel, 2003-20
France
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 41: Outbound trips and expenditure: France, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 42: Top six destinations for French outbound travel, 2003-20
Germany
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 43: Outbound trips and expenditure: Germany, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 44: Top six destinations for German outbound travel, 2003-20
Hong Kong (China)
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 45: Outbound trips and expenditure: Hong Kong, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 46: Top five destinations* for outbound travel from Hong Kong, 2003-20
India
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 47: Outbound trips and expenditure: India, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 48: Top five destinations for Indian outbound travel, 2003-20
Iran
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 49: Outbound trips and expenditure: Iran, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 50: Top four destinations for Iranian outbound travel, 2003-20
Ireland
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 51: Outbound trips and expenditure: Ireland, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 52: Top five destinations for Irish outbound travel, 2003-20
Italy
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 53: Outbound trips and expenditure: Italy, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 54: Top six destinations for Italian outbound travel, 2003-20
Japan
Population structure
Economy
Figure 55: Trends in the yen/euro exchange rate, 1999-2006
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 56: Outbound trips and expenditure: Japan, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 57: Top five destinations for Japanese outbound travel, 2003-20
(South) Korea
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 58: Outbound trips and expenditure: South Korea, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 59: Top five destinations for South Korean outbound travel, 2003-20
Mexico
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 60: Outbound trips and expenditure: Mexico, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 61: Top five destinations for Mexican outbound travel, 2003-20
Netherlands
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 62: Outbound trips and expenditure: Netherlands, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 63: Top five destinations for Dutch outbound travel, 2003-20
Norway
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 64: Outbound trips and expenditure: Norway, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 65: Top five destinations for Norwegian outbound travel, 2003-20
Poland
Population structure
Economy
Figure 66: Trends in the Polish zloty/euro exchange rate, 1999-2006
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 67: Outbound trips and expenditure: Poland, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 68: Top five destinations for Polish outbound holiday travel, 2003-20
Russian Federation
Population structure
Economy
Figure 69: Euro/rouble exchange rate, 2004-06
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 70: Outbound trips and expenditure: Russia, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Figure 71: Projected growth in Russian outbound spending, 2003-16
Destinations
Figure 72: Leading non-CIS destinations for Russian travel, 2003-20
Figure 73: Package tour destinations for Russian tourists, 2005
Figure 74: Trend in Russian package tours, 2005-07
Singapore
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 75: Outbound trips and expenditure: Singapore, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 76: Top five destinations for outbound travel from Singapore, 2003-20
Spain
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 77: Outbound trips and expenditure: Spain, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 78: Top five destinations for Spanish outbound travel, 2003-20
Sweden
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 79: Outbound trips and expenditure: Sweden, 1995-2020
Destinations
Figure 80: Top five destinations for Swedish outbound travel, 2003-20
Switzerland
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 81: Outbound trips and expenditure: Switzerland, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 82: Arrivals in the top five destinations for Swiss outbound travel, 2003-20
Taiwan
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 83: Outbound trips and expenditure: Taiwan, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 84: Top five destinations for Taiwanese outbound travel, 2003-20
Thailand
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 85: Outbound trips and expenditure: Thailand, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 86: Top five destinations for Thai outbound travel, 2003-20
UK
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 87: Outbound trips and expenditure: UK, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 88: Top five destinations for outbound travel from the UK, 2003-20
US
Population structure
Economy
Propensity to travel
Departures
Figure 89: Outbound trips and expenditure: US, 1995-2020
Expenditure
Destinations
Figure 90: Arrivals in the top five destinations for US outbound travel, 2003-20

Forecast Inbound Arrivals and Receipts by Destination Country
Australia
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 91: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Australia, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
China
Figure 92: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Australia, 2003-20
Japan
New Zealand
UK
US
Austria
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 93: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Austria, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 94: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Austria, 2003-20
Belgium
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 95: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Belgium, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 96: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Belgium, 2003-20
Canada
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 97: Incoming arrivals and receipts: Canada, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 98: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Canada, 2003-20
China
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 99: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for China, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Japan
(South) Korea
Russia
Taiwan
US
Figure 100: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities* to China, 2003-20
Croatia
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 101: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Croatia, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 102: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Croatia, 2003-20
Egypt
Tourism market profile
Figure 103: Trend in incoming hotel overnights in Egypt, 2000-04
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 104: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Egypt, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 105: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Egypt, 2003-20
France
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 106: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for France, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 107: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to France, 2003-20
Germany
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 108: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Germany, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 109: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Germany, 2003-20
Greece
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 110: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Greece, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 111: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Greece, 2003-20
Hong Kong (China)
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 112: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Hong Kong, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 113: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities* to Hong Kong, 2003-20
India
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 114: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for India, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 115: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to India, 2003-20
Italy
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 116: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Italy, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 117: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Italy, 2003-20
Japan
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 118: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Japan, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 119: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Japan, 2003-20
(South) Korea
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 120: Incoming arrivals (VF) and receipts for Korea, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 121: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Korea, 2003-20
Macao (China)
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 122: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Macao, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 123: Arrivals* by top five incoming nationalities to Macao, 2003-20
Malaysia
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 124: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts in Malaysia, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 125: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Malaysia, 2003-20
Mexico
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 126: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Mexico, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 127: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Mexico, 2003-20
Netherlands
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 128: Incoming arrivals (TCE) and receipts for Netherlands, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 129: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to the Netherlands, 2003-20
New Zealand
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 130: Incoming arrivals (VF) and receipts: New Zealand, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 131: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to New Zealand, 2003-20
Poland
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Figure 132: The zloty/euro exchange rate, 1999-2006
Arrivals
Figure 133: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Poland, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 134: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Poland, 2003-20
Portugal
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 135: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Portugal, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 136: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Portugal, 2003-20
Russia
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 137: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Russia, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 138: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Russia, 2003-20
Saudi Arabia
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 139: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Saudi Arabia, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 140: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Saudi Arabia, 2003-20
Singapore
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 141: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Singapore, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 142: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Singapore, 2003-20
South Africa
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 143: Incoming arrivals (VF) and receipts: South Africa, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 144: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to South Africa, 2003-20
Spain
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 145: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Spain, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 146: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Spain, 2003-20
Switzerland
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 147: Incoming arrivals (TH) and receipts for Switzerland, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 148: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Switzerland, 2003-20
Thailand
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 149: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for Thailand, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 150: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to Thailand, 2003-20
Turkey
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 151: Incoming arrivals (TF) & receipts for Turkey, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 152: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities or regions to Turkey, 2003-20
UK
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 153: Incoming arrivals (VF) and receipts for the UK, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 154: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to the UK, 2003-20
US
Tourism market profile
Exchange rate outlook
Arrivals
Figure 155: Incoming arrivals (TF) and receipts for the US, 1995-2020
Receipts
Major incoming markets
Figure 156: Arrivals by top five incoming nationalities to the US, 2003-20