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Monthly Wholesale Price Brief - A Review of European Gas and Power Price Trends: November 2006

DateDec, 2006
Pages23
Price / format$2795 / Online Download
$5590 / Global Site License

$2 795 

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Abstract:
 Introduction

The growing role of wholesale traded energy markets across Europe creates a greater need for players throughout the value chain to be aware of the latest market movements and developments. From the wellhead or power station gate to the end-user, volatility in the spot and forward price of power and gas is creating an increasingly challenging environment for all market participants.

Scope
  • An examination of the wholesale gas price trends in Europe's three key markets - the UK NBP, the Zeebrugge Hub and the Dutch TTF.
  • An assessment of traded peak and baseload power prices in the EU's three key electricity markets - the UK, Germany and France.
  • Key analysis of cross-border price differentials and commodity spreads relating to current issues that are driving European energy debate.
  • A comprehensive graphical breakdown of wholesale, retail and liquidity trends in Europe's most influential energy sectors.
Highlights

Relative wholesale gas price pressure is converging for suppliers across Europe. In October 2005, the UK stood alone with wholesale price pressure at 81%. By October 2006, however, a fall in the NBP curve has seen the UK fall to 67% wholesale price pressure below both Belgium and France.

France's government continues to subsidise an artificially low price of gas through its involvement in dominant supplier GDF. While the state sets a fixed tariff for gas, often at or below the costs of production, that also co-exists with a liberalised market, new entrants will continue to struggle to make headway in the French gas market.

Power price arbitrage drives Germany to net export status with France. If French hydro output continues to improve, France's net export status with Germany should return pressuring the forward price arbitrage between the markets to revert to its historic position.

Reasons to Purchase
  • Establish the current level of wholesale and retail energy prices and the fundamental drivers behind movements in the traded value of gas and power.
  • Understand how wholesale pricing impacts different facets of the value chain, identifying the potential to limit risk through hedging strategies.
  • Forecast future developments in the traded price of gas and power in order to successfully take advantage of arbitrage opportunities.
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Table of contents:
DATAMONITOR VIEW
CATALYST
SUMMARY
METHODOLOGY


ANALYSIS
This brief assesses key developments in Europe's key wholesale energy markets
Unseasonably high temperatures leave NW Europe awash with gas
Oversupply pushes the NBP spot gas market into the doldrums
Fear premium is steadily eroding away from the UK gas curve
Despite Interconnector flip, Belgian spot gas prices track the NBP
Zeebrugge gas curve continues to mirror UK market sentiment
TTF maintains its spot price premium on reduced Norwegian flows
Dutch gas curve still the cheapest in NW Europe ahead of BBL test flows
Mild winter demand continues to suppress European electricity prices
Spot power prices hit a 21-month low on UK gas supply glut
Confidence grows on the UK power curve as mild weather persists
German spot power prices fall as strong winds offset plant outages
Speculative buying limits losses along the German power curve
Rising hydro output precipitates French spot power price slide
Weaker carbon hits the French power curve harder than Germany
Relative wholesale gas price pressure is converging for suppliers across Europe
New entrants face an uphill struggle to compete in the French gas market
Power price arbitrage drives Germany to net export status with France


GLOSSARY
This brief contains a number of industry standard terms


APPENDIX
Further reading
Datamonitor Consultancy
Ask the analyst


List of Figures
Figure 1: UK spot gas price, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 2: UK forward gas prices, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 3: Belgian spot gas price, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 4: Belgian forward gas prices, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 5: NW European spot gas price comparison, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 6: NW European forward gas price comparison, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 7: UK spot baseload electricity price, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 8: UK forward baseload power prices, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 9: German spot baseload power prices, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 10: German forward baseload power prices, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 11: NW European spot baseload price comparison, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 12: NW European forward baseload price comparison, Nov-03 to Oct-06
Figure 13: The European wholesale-retail gas price landscape
Figure 14: Year-on-year change, by country
Figure 15: Indicative French wholesale gas margins in Q1-07, by market
Figure 16: Franco-German forward power price differential




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