The latest Australia Oil & Gas Report from BMI forecasts that the country will account for 3.4% of Asia/Pacific regional oil demand by 2010, while providing 6.3% of supply. Asia/Pacific regional oil demand rose to an estimated 24.74mn b/d last year and should average 25.36mn b/d in 2007, before reaching 27.64mn b/d by 2010. Asia/Pacific gas consumption in 2006 is estimated at 419bcm, with demand of 602bcm targeted for 2010. Production last year of 342bcm should reach 490bcm by the end of the decade. Australia's share of consumption in 2006 was an estimated 6.68%, while its share of production is put at 12.57%. By 2010, its share of demand is forecast to be 5.5%, with the country accounting for 11.2% of supply. For the whole of last year, our preliminary estimates of average prices are US$61.30 per barrel for the OPEC basket, US$65.03 for Brent, US$66.24/bbl for WTI and US$61.30 for Urals. For 2007, the revised BMI forecasts are for the OPEC basket to average US$55 per barrel. Based on last year's typical price differentials, this implies Brent at US$58.72, WTI averaging US$59.94/bbl, and Urals at US$55 per barrel. Our central view is that the OPEC basket price will slip from US$55/bbl this year to US$50 in 2008, before settling around US$45/bbl in 2009/2010. Australian real GDP growth is forecast by BMI at 3.5% for 2007, up from an estimated 2.9% in 2006. We are also assuming 3.5% growth in 2008-09, followed by 3.6% in 2010. There is no state oil industry, but a group of domestic and leading international companies is investing heavily in gas production and exports, but is having less success in staving off Australia's declining oil output. We are assuming oil and gas liquids production of no more than 480,000b/d by 2011, although the country is thought to have pumped 540,000b/d last year.

Consumption is forecast to increase by around 1.5% per annum to 2010, implying demand of 959,000b/d by the end of the forecast period. The import requirement would therefore be approximately 479,000b/d by 2011. In the BMI Business Environment Ranking matrix, Australia receives an unchanged composite score of 48 which continues to rank the country first out of 14 states included in the Asia/Pacific region. The overall business environment can be considered very attractive in a regional context, thanks largely to low levels of perceived political and economic risk, full oil industry deregulation, above-average licensing terms and a well-established competitive landscape involving several IOCs. There is a relatively poor outlook for domestic upstream oil output growth, but significant gas potential. Similarly, the country's gas reserves position is much better than for oil. It is predominantly the attractions of the gas sector that

• Executive Summary
• Chapter 1 - Swot Analysis
  • Australia Economic SWOT Analysis
  • Australia Political SWOT
  • Australia Business Environment SWOT
• Chapter 2 - Regional Market Overview
  • Asia/Pacific Region
  • Australia
• Chapter 3 - Business Environment Rankings
  • Australia
  • Asia/Pacific Region
• Chapter 4 - Australia Business Environment Ranking
  • Economics - Long-Term Risk
  • Politics - Long-Term Risk
  • Oil & Gas Growth
  • Oil/Gas Reserves
  • Licensing/Regulation
  • Competitive Environment
• Chapter 5 - Business Environment Overview
  • Political Risk Summary
  • Economic Risk Summary
  • Business Environment Risk Summary
  • Legal Code/Corruption
  • Foreign Direct Investment
  • Tax Regime
• Chapter 6 - Oil Market Outlook
  • Assessing The Risks
  • Table: Crude Price Forecasts 2007
  • Revised Forecasts
  • Table: Oil Price Forecasts
• Chapter 7 - Regional Supply and Demand
  • Asia/Pacific
  • Table: Oil Production (000b/d) - Asia/Pacific
  • Table: Oil Consumption (000b/d) - Asia/Pacific
• Chapter 8 - Global Picture
  • Table: Global Oil Consumption (000b/d)
  • Table: Global Oil Production (000b/d)
• Chapter 9 - Industry Forecast Scenario
  • Oil and Gas Reserves
  • Oil Supply and Demand
  • Gas Supply and Demand
  • LNG
  • Refining and Oil Products Trade
  • Revenues/Import Costs
  • Table: Australia Oil & Gas - Historic Data & Forecasts
  • Other Energy
  • Table: Australia Other Energy - Historic Data & Forecasts
  • Key Risks to BMI's Forecast Scenario
• Chapter 10 - Economic Outlook
  • Table: Economic Activity - Historical Data And Forecasts
• Chapter 11 - Regional Case Study - ConocoPhillips
  • Table: Exploration And Production 2005
  • Table: Commercial Realisation - Refining And Marketing 2005
• Chapter 12 - Competitive Landscape
• Executive Summary
  • Table: Key Players - Australia Oil And Gas Sector
  • Overview/State Role
  • Chevron - Summary
  • ConocoPhillips - Summary
  • Shell - Summary
  • ExxonMobil - Summary
  • CNOOC - Summary
  • Table: Key Upstream Players
  • Woodside - Summary
  • BP - Summary
  • BHP - Summary
  • Table: Key Downstream Players
  • Santos - Summary
  • Others - Summary
• Chapter 13 - Company Profile
  • Woodside Petroleum
• Chapter 14 - BMI Forecast Modelling
  • How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts
  • Energy Industry 58
  • Cross checks
  • Sources