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The 2006-2011 World Outlook for Electric Pencil Sharpeners, Staplers, and Other Electric Office Machines Excluding Mailing, Letter Handling, and Addressing Machines

DateApr, 2005
Pages199
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Abstract:
 WHAT IS LATENT DEMAND AND THE P.I.E.?

The concept of latent demand is rather subtle. The term latent typically refers to something that is dormant, not observable, or not yet realized. Demand is the notion of an economic quantity that a target population or market requires under different assumptions of price, quality, and distribution, among other factors. Latent demand, therefore, is commonly defined by economists as the industry earnings of a market when that market becomes accessible and attractive to serve by competing firms. It is a measure, therefore, of potential industry earnings (P.I.E.) or total revenues (not profit) if a market is served in an efficient manner. It is typically expressed as the total revenues potentially extracted by firms. The “market” is defined at a given level in the value chain. There can be latent demand at the retail level, at the wholesale level, the manufacturing level, and the raw materials level (the P.I.E. of higher levels of the value chain being always smaller than the P.I.E. of levels at lower levels of the same value chain, assuming all levels maintain minimum profitability).

The latent demand for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines is not actual or historic sales. Nor is latent demand future sales. In fact, latent demand can be lower either lower or higher than actual sales if a market is inefficient (i.e., not representative of relatively competitive levels). Inefficiencies arise from a number of factors, including the lack of international openness, cultural barriers to consumption, regulations, and cartel-like behavior on the part of firms. In general, however, latent demand is typically larger than actual sales in a country market.

For reasons discussed later, this report does not consider the notion of “unit quantities”, only total latent revenues (i.e., a calculation of price times quantity is never made, though one is implied). The units used in this report are U.S. dollars not adjusted for inflation (i.e., the figures incorporate inflationary trends) and not adjusted for future dynamics in exchange rates (i.e., the figures reflect average exchange rates over recent history). If inflation rates or exchange rates vary in a substantial way compared to recent experience, actually sales can also exceed latent demand (when expressed in U.S. dollars, not adjusted for inflation). On the other hand, latent demand can be typically higher than actual sales as there are often distribution inefficiencies that reduce actual sales below the level of latent demand.

As mentioned in the introduction, this study is strategic in nature, taking an aggregate and long-run view, irrespective of the players or products involved. If fact, all the current products or services on the market can cease to exist in their present form (i.e., at a brand-, R&D specification, or corporate-image level) and all the players can be replaced by other firms (i.e., via exits, entries, mergers, bankruptcies, etc.), and there will still be an international latent demand for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines at the aggregate level. Product and service offering details, and the actual identity of the players involved, while important for certain issues, are relatively unimportant for estimates of latent demand.

THE METHODOLOGY

In order to estimate the latent demand for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines on a worldwide basis, I used a multi-stage approach. Before applying the approach, one needs a basic theory from which such estimates are created. In this case, I heavily rely on the use of certain basic economic assumptions. In particular, there is an assumption governing the shape and type of aggregate latent demand functions. Latent demand functions relate the income of a country, city, state, household, or individual to realized consumption. Latent demand (often realized as consumption when an industry is efficient), at any level of the value chain, takes place if an equilibrium in realized. For firms to serve a market, they must perceive a latent demand and be able to serve that demand at a minimal return. The single most important variable determining consumption, assuming latent demand exists, is income (or other financial resources at higher levels of the value chain). Other factors that can pivot or shape demand curves include external or exogenous shocks (i.e., business cycles), and or changes in utility for the product in question.

Ignoring, for the moment, exogenous shocks and variations in utility across countries, the aggregate relation between income and consumption has been a central theme in economics. The figure below concisely summarizes one aspect of problem. In the 1930s, John Meynard Keynes conjectured that as incomes rise, the average propensity to consume would fall. The average propensity to consume is the level of consumption divided by the level of income, or the slope of the line from the origin to the consumption function. He estimated this relationship empirically and found it to be true in the short-run (mostly based on cross-sectional data). The higher the income, the lower the average propensity to consume. This type of consumption function is labeled "A" in the figure below (note the rather flat slope of the curve). In the 1940s, another macroeconomist, Simon Kuznets, estimated long-run consumption functions which indicated that the marginal propensity to consume was rather constant (using time series data across countries). This type of consumption function is show as "B" in the figure below (note the higher slope and zero-zero intercept). The average propensity to consume is constant.

Is it declining or is it constant? A number of other economists, notably Franco Modigliani and Milton Friedman, in the 1950s (and Irving Fisher earlier), explained why the two functions were different using various assumptions on intertemporal budget constraints, savings, and wealth. The shorter the time horizon, the more consumption can depend on wealth (earned in previous years) and business cycles. In the long-run, however, the propensity to consume is more constant. Similarly, in the long run, households, industries or countries with no income eventually have no consumption (wealth is depleted). While the debate surrounding beliefs about how income and consumption are related and interesting, in this study a very particular school of thought is adopted. In particular, we are considering the latent demand for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines across some 230 countries. The smallest have fewer than 10,000 inhabitants. I assume that all of these counties fall along a "long-run" aggregate consumption function. This long-run function applies despite some of these countries having wealth, current income dominates the latent demand for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines. So, latent demand in the long-run has a zero intercept. However, I allow firms to have different propensities to consume (including being on consumption functions with differing slopes, which can account for differences in industrial organization, and end-user preferences).

Given this overriding philosophy, I will now describe the methodology used to create the latent demand estimates for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines. Since ICON Group has asked me to apply this methodology to a large number of categories, the rather academic discussion below is general and can be applied to a wide variety of categories, not just electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines.

Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection

Any study of latent demand across countries requires that some standard be established to define “efficiently served”. Having implemented various alternatives and matched these with market outcomes, I have found that the optimal approach is to assume that certain key countries are more likely to be at or near efficiency than others. These countries are given greater weight than others in the estimation of latent demand compared to other countries for which no known data are available. Of the many alternatives, I have found the assumption that the world’s highest aggregate income and highest income-per-capita markets reflect the best standards for “efficiency”. High aggregate income alone is not sufficient (i.e., China has high aggregate income, but low income per capita and can not assumed to be efficient). Aggregate income can be operationalized in a number of ways, including gross domestic product (for industrial categories), or total disposable income (for household categories; population times average income per capita, or number of households times average household income per capita). Brunei, Nauru, Kuwait, and Lichtenstein are examples of countries with high income per capita, but not assumed to be efficient, given low aggregate level of income (or gross domestic product); these countries have, however, high incomes per capita but may not benefit from the efficiencies derived from economies of scale associated with large economies. Only countries with high income per capita and large aggregate income are assumed efficient. This greatly restricts the pool of countries to those in the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development), like the United States, or the United Kingdom (which were earlier than other large OECD economies to liberalize their markets).

The selection of countries is further reduced by the fact that not all countries in the OECD report industry revenues at the category level. Countries that typically have ample data at the aggregate level that meet the efficiency criteria include the United States, the United Kingdom and in some cases France and Germany.

Latent demand is therefore estimated using data collected for relatively efficient markets from independent data sources (e.g. Euromonitor, Mintel, Thomson Financial Services, the U.S. Industrial Outlook, the World Resources Institute, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development, various agencies from the United Nations, industry trade associations, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Bank). Depending on original data sources used, the definition of “electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines” is established. In the case of this report, the data were reported at the aggregate level, with no further breakdown or definition. In other words, any potential product or service that might be incorporated within electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines falls under this category. Public sources rarely report data at the disaggregated level in order to protect private information from individual firms that might dominate a specific product-market. These sources will therefore aggregate across components of a category and report only the aggregate to the public. While private data are certainly available, this report only relies on public data at the aggregate level without reliance on the summation of various category components. In other words, this report does not aggregate a number of components to arrive at the “whole”. Rather, it starts with the “whole”, and estimates the whole for all countries and the world at large (without needing to know the specific parts that went into the whole in the first place).

Given this caveat, this study covers “electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines” as defined by the North American Industrial Classification system or NAICS (pronounced “nakes”). The NAICS code for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines is 333313E. It is for this definition of electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines that the aggregate latent demand estimates are derived. “Electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines” is specifically defined as follows:

333313E
electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines

333313E1
electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines

333313E100
electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines

Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing

Based on the aggregate view of electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines as defined above, data were then collected for as many similar countries as possible for that same definition, at the same level of the value chain. This generates a convenience sample of countries from which comparable figures are available. If the series in question do not reflect the same accounting period, then adjustments are made. In order to eliminate short-term effects of business cycles, the series are smoothed using an 2 year moving average weighting scheme (longer weighting schemes do not substantially change the results). If data are available for a country, but these reflect short-run aberrations due to exogenous shocks (such as would be the case of beef sales in a country stricken with foot and mouth disease), these observations were dropped or "filtered" from the analysis.

Step 3. Filling in Missing Values

In some cases, data are available for countries on a sporadic basis. In other cases, data from a country may be available for only one year. From a Bayesian perspective, these observations should be given greatest weight in estimating missing years. Assuming that other factors are held constant, the missing years are extrapolated using changes and growth in aggregate national income. Based on the overriding philosophy of a long-run consumption function (defined earlier), countries which have missing data for any given year, are estimated based on historical dynamics of aggregate income for that country.

Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation

Given the data available from the first three steps, the latent demand in additional countries is estimated using a “varying-parameter cross-sectionally pooled time series model”. Simply stated, the effect of income on latent demand is assumed to be constant across countries unless there is empirical evidence to suggest that this effect varies (i.e., . the slope of the income effect is not necessarily same for all countries). This assumption applies across countries along the aggregate consumption function, but also over time (i.e., not all countries are perceived to have the same income growth prospects over time and this effect can vary from country to country as well). Another way of looking at this is to say that latent demand for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines is more likely to be similar across countries that have similar characteristics in terms of economic development (i.e., African countries will have similar latent demand structures controlling for the income variation across the pool of African countries).

This approach is useful across countries for which some notion of non-linearity exists in the aggregate cross-country consumption function. For some categories, however, the reader must realize that the numbers will reflect a country’s contribution to global latent demand and may never be realized in the form of local sales. For certain country-category combinations this will result in what at first glance will be odd results. For example, the latent demand for the category “space vehicles” will exist for “Togo” even though they have no space program. The assumption is that if the economies in these countries did not exist, the world aggregate for these categories would be lower. The share attributed to these countries is based on a proportion of their income (however small) being used to consume the category in question (i.e., perhaps via resellers).

Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation

Nonlinearities are assumed in cases where filtered data exist along the aggregate consumption function. Because the world consists of more than 200 countries, there will always be those countries, especially toward the bottom of the consumption function, where non-linear estimation is simply not possible. For these countries, equilibrium latent demand is assumed to be perfectly parametric and not a function of wealth (i.e., a country’s stock of income), but a function of current income (a country’s flow of income). In the long run, if a country has no current income, the latent demand for electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines is assumed to approach zero. The assumption is that wealth stocks fall rapidly to zero if flow income falls to zero (i.e., countries which earn low levels of income will not use their savings, in the long run, to demand electric pencil sharpeners, staplers, and other electric office machines excluding mailing, letter handling, and addressing machines). In a graphical sense, for low income countries, latent demand approaches zero in a parametric linear fashion with a zero-zero intercept. In this stage of the estimation procedure, low-income countries are assumed to have a latent demand proportional to their income, based on the country closest to it on the aggregate consumption function.

Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking

Based on the models described above, latent demand figures are estimated for all countries of the world, including for the smallest economies. These are then aggregated to get world totals and regional totals. To make the numbers more meaningful, regional and global demand averages are presented. Figures are rounded, so minor inconsistencies may exist across tables.

Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities

With the advent of a “borderless world”, cities become a more important criteria in prioritizing markets, as opposed to regions, continents, or countries. This report also covers the world’s top 2000 cities. The purpose is to understand the density of demand within a country and the extent to which a city might be used as a point of distribution within its region. From an economic perspective, however, a city does not represent a population within rigid geographical boundaries. To an economist or strategic planner, a city represents an area of dominant influence over markets in adjacent areas. This influence varies from one industry to another, but also from one period of time to another.

Similar to country-level data, the reader needs to realize that latent demand allocated to a city may or may not represent real sales. For many items, latent demand is clearly observable in sales, as in the case for food or housing items. Consider, again, the category “satellite launch vehicles.” Clearly, there are no launch pads in most cities of the world. However, the core benefit of the vehicles (e.g. telecommunications, etc.) is "consumed" by residents or industries within the world's cities. Without certain cities, in other words, the world market for satellite launch vehicles would be lower for the world in general. One needs to allocate, therefore, a portion of the worldwide economic demand for launch vehicles to regions, countries and cities. This report takes the broader definition and considers, therefore, a city as a part of the global market. I allocate latent demand across areas of dominant influence based on the relative economic importance of cities within its home country, within its region and across the world total. Not all cities are estimated within each country as demand may be allocated to adjacent areas of influence. Since some cities have higher economic wealth than others within the same country, a city’s population is not generally used to allocate latent demand. Rather, the level of economic activity of the city vis-à-vis others.


Table of contents:
 1 INTRODUCTION 10
1.1 Overview 10
1.2 What is Latent Demand and the P.I.E.? 10
1.3 The Methodology 11
1.3.1 Step 1. Product Definition and Data Collection 12
1.3.2 Step 2. Filtering and Smoothing 14
1.3.3 Step 3. Filling in Missing Values 14
1.3.4 Step 4. Varying Parameter, Non-linear Estimation 14
1.3.5 Step 5. Fixed-Parameter Linear Estimation 15
1.3.6 Step 6. Aggregation and Benchmarking 15
1.3.7 Step 7. Latent Demand Density: Allocating Across Cities 15
2 SUMMARY OF FINDINGS 16
2.1 The Worldwide Market Potential 16
3 AFRICA 18
3.1 Executive Summary 18
3.2 Algeria 19
3.3 Angola 20
3.4 Benin 21
3.5 Botswana 22
3.6 Burkina Faso 23
3.7 Burundi 23
3.8 Cameroon 24
3.9 Cape Verde 25
3.10 Central African Republic 25
3.11 Chad 26
3.12 Comoros 27
3.13 Congo (formerly Zaire) 27
3.14 Cote d'Ivoire 28
3.15 Djibouti 29
3.16 Egypt 30
3.17 Equatorial Guinea 31
3.18 Ethiopia 31
3.19 Gabon 32
3.20 Ghana 33
3.21 Guinea 34
3.22 Guinea-Bissau 34
3.23 Kenya 35
3.24 Lesotho 36
3.25 Liberia 36
3.26 Libya 37
3.27 Madagascar 38
3.28 Malawi 38
3.29 Mali 39
3.30 Mauritania 40
3.31 Mauritius 40
3.32 Morocco 41
3.33 Mozambique 42
3.34 Namibia 42
3.35 Niger 43
3.36 Nigeria 44
3.37 Republic of Congo 45
3.38 Reunion 45
3.39 Rwanda 46
3.40 Sao Tome E Principe 47
3.41 Senegal 47
3.42 Sierra Leone 48
3.43 Somalia 49
3.44 South Africa 50
3.45 Sudan 51
3.46 Swaziland 52
3.47 Tanzania 52
3.48 The Gambia 53
3.49 Togo 54
3.50 Tunisia 55
3.51 Uganda 56
3.52 Western Sahara 57
3.53 Zambia 57
3.54 Zimbabwe 58
4 ASIA 60
4.1 Executive Summary 60
4.2 Bangladesh 61
4.3 Bhutan 62
4.4 Brunei 63
4.5 Burma 64
4.6 Cambodia 65
4.7 China 65
4.8 Hong Kong 66
4.9 India 67
4.10 Indonesia 68
4.11 Japan 69
4.12 Laos 70
4.13 Macau 70
4.14 Malaysia 71
4.15 Maldives 72
4.16 Mongolia 73
4.17 Nepal 73
4.18 North Korea 74
4.19 Papua New Guinea 75
4.20 Philippines 75
4.21 Seychelles 76
4.22 Singapore 77
4.23 South Korea 78
4.24 Sri Lanka 79
4.25 Taiwan 80
4.26 Thailand 81
4.27 Vietnam 82
5 EUROPE 83
5.1 Executive Summary 83
5.2 Albania 84
5.3 Andorra 85
5.4 Austria 86
5.5 Belarus 87
5.6 Belgium 88
5.7 Bosnia and Herzegovina 89
5.8 Bulgaria 89
5.9 Croatia 90
5.10 Cyprus 91
5.11 Czech Republic 92
5.12 Denmark 93
5.13 Estonia 94
5.14 Finland 94
5.15 France 95
5.16 Georgia 96
5.17 Germany 97
5.18 Greece 98
5.19 Hungary 99
5.20 Iceland 100
5.21 Ireland 101
5.22 Italy 101
5.23 Kazakhstan 102
5.24 Latvia 103
5.25 Liechtenstein 104
5.26 Lithuania 105
5.27 Luxembourg 105
5.28 Malta 106
5.29 Moldova 107
5.30 Monaco 107
5.31 Netherlands 108
5.32 Norway 109
5.33 Poland 110
5.34 Portugal 111
5.35 Romania 112
5.36 Russia 113
5.37 San Marino 114
5.38 Slovakia 114
5.39 Slovenia 115
5.40 Spain 116
5.41 Sweden 117
5.42 Switzerland 118
5.43 Ukraine 119
5.44 United Kingdom 120
6 OCEANA 121
6.1 Executive Summary 121
6.2 American Samoa 122
6.3 Australia 123
6.4 Christmas Island 124
6.5 Cook Islands 124
6.6 Fiji 125
6.7 French Polynesia 126
6.8 Guam 126
6.9 Kiribati 127
6.10 Marshall Islands 128
6.11 Micronesia Federation 128
6.12 Nauru 129
6.13 New Caledonia 130
6.14 New Zealand 130
6.15 Niue 131
6.16 Norfolk Island 132
6.17 Northern Mariana Island 132
6.18 Palau 133
6.19 Solomon Islands 134
6.20 Tokelau 134
6.21 Tonga 135
6.22 Tuvalu 136
6.23 Vanuatu 136
6.24 Wallis and Futuna 137
6.25 Western Samoa 138
7 THE AMERICAS 139
7.1 Executive Summary 139
7.2 Antigua and Barbuda 140
7.3 Argentina 141
7.4 Aruba 142
7.5 Bahamas 142
7.6 Barbados 143
7.7 Belize 144
7.8 Bermuda 144
7.9 Bolivia 145
7.10 Brazil 146
7.11 British Virgin Islands 147
7.12 Canada 147
7.13 Cayman Islands 148
7.14 Chile 149
7.15 Colombia 150
7.16 Costa Rica 151
7.17 Cuba 151
7.18 Dominica 152
7.19 Dominican Republic 153
7.20 Ecuador 154
7.21 El Salvador 155
7.22 Falkland Islands 155
7.23 French Guiana 156
7.24 Greenland 157
7.25 Grenada 158
7.26 Guadeloupe 158
7.27 Guatemala 159
7.28 Guyana 160
7.29 Haiti 160
7.30 Honduras 161
7.31 Jamaica 162
7.32 Martinique 162
7.33 Mexico 163
7.34 Netherlands Antilles 164
7.35 Nicaragua 165
7.36 Panama 166
7.37 Paraguay 167
7.38 Peru 168
7.39 Puerto Rico 169
7.40 St. Kitts and Nevis 170
7.41 St. Lucia 170
7.42 St. Vincent and the Grenadines 171
7.43 Suriname 172
7.44 Trinidad and Tobago 172
7.45 United States 173
7.46 Uruguay 174
7.47 Venezuela 175
7.48 Virgin Islands, US 176
8 THE MIDDLE EAST 178
8.1 Executive Summary 178
8.2 Afghanistan 179
8.3 Armenia 180
8.4 Azerbaijan 181
8.5 Bahrain 182
8.6 Iran 183
8.7 Iraq 184
8.8 Israel 185
8.9 Jordan 186
8.10 Kuwait 186
8.11 Kyrgyzstan 187
8.12 Lebanon 188
8.13 Oman 188
8.14 Pakistan 189
8.15 Palestine 190
8.16 Qatar 190
8.17 Saudi Arabia 191
8.18 Syrian Arab Republic 192
8.19 Tajikistan 193
8.20 Turkey 193
8.21 Turkmenistan 194
8.22 United Arab Emirates 195
8.23 Uzbekistan 196
8.24 Yemen 197
9 DISCLAIMERS, WARRANTEES, AND USER AGREEMENT PROVISIONS 198
9.1 Disclaimers & Safe Harbor 198
9.2 ICON Group International, Inc. User Agreement Provisions 199




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