Introduction

This brief forecasts premium income for the major commercial insurance lines in the UK, as well as examining the drivers behind those forecasts

Scope

• Forecasts of GWP for group accident and health, liability, commercial motor, commercial pecuniary loss and commercial property insurance between
• Qualitative discussion of the key variables effecting the growth of each business line

Highlights

The total commercial general insurance market is expected to grow from £15.1 billion in 2006 to £20.4 billion in 2011, representing a compound annual growth of 6.2 per cent.

Reasons to Purchase

• Understand how the commercial general insurance market is likely to grow at a total level and by line of business
• Gain insight into the drivers that will affect the direction of the major commercial insurance lines

• CHAPTER 1 INTRODUCTION
  • What is this report about?
  • Who is the target reader?
  • How to use this report
• CHAPTER 2 THE FUTURE DECODED
  • Introduction
  • The total commercial market will grow at a steady pace driven largely by the commercial liability sector, while group accident and health and commercial pecuniary loss are set to see steadier growth
    • The commercial liability market and the commercial pecuniary loss market are forecast to see the fastest growth between 2006 and 2011
    • Group accident and health and commercial motor are forecast to see steady growth
  • The accident and health market will record slow growth, as the group sector continues to outperform the individual sector
    • The group sector will manage to sustain marginal policyholder number growth, while increases in premium inflation are recorded
    • The group accident and health market is forecast to grow by a compound annual rate of 4.8 per cent between 2006 and 2011
  • Liability is expected to remain competitive until the end of 2007, after which GWP growth is forecast to pick up
    • Competition continued to dominate the liability market in 2006, putting pressure on premium rates
    • The turn of the cycle is expected in late 2007
  • Commercial motor GWP is expected to recover in the second half of 2007, with stronger growth to come
    • Rate increases are expected to lead to an improvement in operating conditions in the commercial motor market
    • The commercial motor market is forecast to reach a value of £4.1 billion by 2011
  • The commercial pecuniary loss market is forecast to grow to a value of £1.7 billion by 2011
    • The forecast for pecuniary loss is based on historical trends
    • The commercial pecuniary loss market is forecast to grow by 10.0 per cent on a compound annual basis between 2006 and 2011
  • The commercial property market is seeing price competition, however it is expected to turn in 2008 and reach a value of £5.5 billion by 2011
    • The commercial property market is seeing intense competition
    • Datamonitor forecasts that the commercial property insurance market will reach £5.5 billion by 2011
• CHAPTER 3 APPENDIX
  • Current readings
  • Future readings
  • Do you need more information?
  • SPP writing team
  • List of Tables
    • Table 1: Forecast commercial general insurance GWP, 2001-11f
    • Table 2: Group accident and health GWP forecast, 2001-11
    • Table 3: Forecast general liability GWP, 2001-11
    • Table 4: Commercial motor market GWP forecast. 2001-2011f
    • Table 5: GWP forecast for commercial pecuniary loss, 2001-11
    • Table 6: Forecast commercial property GWP, 2001-11f
  • List of Figures
    • Figure 1: Key to the relative importance of forecast variables
    • Figure 2: The total commercial insurance market is expected to grow between 2006 and 2011
    • Figure 3: Key variables influencing GWP in the accident and health market, 2006f-11
    • Figure 4: The group accident and health market is forecast to achieve a compound annual growth rate of 4.8% between 2006 and 2011
    • Figure 5: Key variables affecting liability GWP, 2006-11
    • Figure 6: The liability market is expected to see strong growth between 2008 and 2010
    • Figure 7: Key variables affecting commercial motor GWP, 2006e-11f
    • Figure 8: GWP is forecast to begin growing again in 2007 as the motor market recovers
    • Figure 9: Commercial pecuniary loss is forecast to grow by a compound annual growth rate of 10.0 per cent between 2006 and 2011
    • Figure 10: Key variables affecting commercial property GWP, 2006e-11f
    • Figure 11: Commercial property GWP will decline until 2008 when rates are expected to rise again